So let's get right to it with some highlight games from week 11 of the NFL and, of course, Saturday Premier League matches:
The Dirty Birds and the ne'er do well, Denver Broncos:
Now is gut check time for the Broncos, who enter the game at 5-4 in a highly unmerited first place in the AFC west. Coming off a come-from-behind victory over the Cleveland Browns in which they scored two late TDs, they fly to Atlanta as 6.5 point underdogs.
The disrespect is merited. The Broncos have the 29th ranked defense, and are especially porous against the run (now might be a good time to point out that Atlanta has the number 1 running offense!). The Broncos have managed one quality win--a home victory over Tampa Bay. Sure they've beaten New Orleans (who sucks) and San Diego (who is practically an embarassement given their talent), but those were early victories. The Broncos have only one chance in this game and that's to air it out and outscore an Atlanta team who is surging now and loves playing at home.
Look for a healthy, healthy dose of Michael Turner, which Matt Ryan will use to set up the play action. And look for Atlanta's outstanding run defense to force Cutler to throw on virtually every down before the end of the second quarter.
Two weeks ago, in their own house, Denver lost to Miami 27-16. Atlanta has more weapons, a big time QB and a chip on their shoulder. This game is a track meet and you're holding the stop watch. Play it one of three ways:
- Atlanta -6.5,
- Atlanta Over 51 (I know that's a lot of points, but it will be 21-14 at half time!)
- Second Half over
Atlanta 31 Denver 21
Our second game is perhaps the most intriguing match-up of the week:
Your Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Redskins
A classic rivalry with serious play-off implications, especially for the Cowboys, who will fall to 5-5 with a loss at RFK. There are so many story lines here: Tony Romo's return, the Cowboys as road favorites, the Redskins victory at Texas stadium and of course, the fact that Clinton Portis will be sitting this game out.
The current line has Dallas as 1.5 favorites and the theory is that the hostility of RFK, lack of Portis and rustiness of Romo will yield a tight low-scoring game (the over/under is 42.5).
Both theories seem suspect. True, the Redskins have gotten where they are by playing good defense, especially against the pass, and they have not given up more than 24 points in any game this year. But let's look at it from the other side: Dallas have given up 30 or more points in 3 of its last 4 games--including an unbelievable 34 points to a horrible St. Louis team.
Clinton Portis is out and Betts is coming off a knee injury, so we'll get to see a lot of Shaun Alexander (how's that for a shocker!). But Portis isn't 2nd in the NFL because he is a one man show, the Redskins line is fine and they will give whoever has a ball a chance to make some yards.
In a game that cries every which way for the classic Redskins/Dallas 16-13 sort of game (did we also mention 20mph winds and a soggy field?), we like flying against conventional wisdom:
Washington 24 Dallas 21
Play the over
The Washington ML seems like the best of the other options (though not a feature for us).
Our final selection is a goofy one, but hey, we can't be North American bound, can we?
The English Premiership is in full swing and there are two intriguing matches going this morning/afternoon:
Man United at home against Stoke City (that's the Stoke City "Ramblers" to you bitch!)
Man U will crush Stoke City, they outclass them on every level. Man U needs the win and they are at home, which is the equivalent of playing in Philadelphia. Look for a blow out and play the total goals over 2 at 4/9.
Fulham (the meekly monikered "Cottagers") and the resurgent Tottenham Hotspurs
This is a tale of two upstarts. Tottenham started the season as the laughing stock of the league--at one point, a respected London paper, the Guardian, even ran a full page of Tottenham jokes!, ok here's my favorite:
"What's the difference between Juande Ramos and a Cowboy?"
A cowboy wears his spurs on his boot, whereas Ramos is a shit manager!"
don't know. I've only had him three years."
Fulham, on the other hand, started in strident fashion with an unbelievable upset of Arsenal, which they then failed to capitalize on. But they have been playing well their last few games and now are looking to build on that and move mid-table.
We're quite keen on a draw here, and possibly, a lot of goal scoring. So play for a tie and cover yourself off with total goals over 2 at 10/11.
Well that's it for now, we'll probably, be forced to update you tomorrow with some more senseless drivel.
Keep spinning--
The Top
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